I despise California’s liberal use of ballot propositions. It masquerades as “people’s democracy” but the reality is so much worse. With a ballot stuffed with obscure initiatives you end up with an even less informed voter.
Which brings us to this year’s California primary. Primaries are the ugly stepchildren of real elections so few really care about them, but this one will have seven propositions in it. In fairness four of them are the same thing regarding Indian casinos, just for different tribes. So that means there are four issues of state that will get debated according to how many commercials get aired on TV. Marvelous.
Proposition 91: Something About Transportation Funds
Yes on prop 91 would restrict the ability of the state government to divert money from the Transportation Investment Fund into the General Fund. Today money can be transferred by the Governor with a proclamation or with a 2/3 passing vote in the Legislature. There is a repayment requirement for transferred funds, but I don’t really understand it. Currently the General Fund can borrow from the TIF for up to three years if the money is used for cash flow purposes. Prop 91 would slash that to 30 days. However prop 91 would also require all funds borrowed before 2007 be repaid by June 30, 2017. I don’t understand what mechanism allows such a long borrowing period, but whatever because that would be ended if this proposition passes.
My Opinion – No: The only benefit, if you can call it that, is to make the transportation budget more stable. What problem does this solve? If changing the transportation budget damages the state then the legislators should be held responsible, by which I mean tossed out of office. We shouldn’t be forcing these restrictions on to future legislators because of past bad behavior. After all, we elect these people to decide on how to manage the budget. This sort of proposition diminishes their ability to do that.
Proposition 92: A Community College Amendment
Prop 92 would overhaul the community college system with an amendment to the state constitution. Community college districts would be established along with a Board of Governors, I assume to administer the entire system. The level of funding for these districts would be calculated separately, and with different criteria, from K-12 schools. However 10.46% of funds collected under proposition 98 (from 1988) would be permanently earmarked for the community college system. The college fees would be lowered from the current $20 to $15 per credit and the legislature would have only specialized circumstances to raise fees.
My Opinion – No: This proposition scares the hell out of me because it sounds like a plan that will spiral into ever greater cost. Already the state is estimating if this passes it would cost an extra $300 million in the 2009-2010 school year. Another issue that bothers me is how the earmark for prop 98 is referenced. If that is written into this proposition, would that automatically enshrine prop 98 in the state constitution? That doesn’t sit right with me. Changes to the state constitution should not be snuck in. And speaking of sneaky, the circumstances for raising fees are even sneakier! Prop 92 would only permit fee increases limited to the lower of 10% or the percentage change in per capita personal income in California. Here comes the sneaky part. The fee must be rounded down to the nearest dollar. That means the change in per capita income must be a minimum of 6.7% for the fee change to be a dollar or greater and not get rounded back down to $15. A change as big as 6.7% has only happened once in the last 20 years. This is a backdoor cap on school fees.
Proposition 93: The Term Limit One
As it stands now a legislator is permitted a total of 14 years of service in the state capitol. This is further restricted a maximum of 6 years in the State Assembly and eight years in the State Senate. Prop 93 would scrap that secondary restriction. The total years of service would be lowered to 12 years but it would not matter how much time was spent in either the Assembly or Senate.
My Opinion – I dunno: This seems like pointless reform. The pro-93 people say this will allow legislators to accumulate more experience, and therefore produce better laws. Well, why isn’t that the case under the current system? After six years in the Assembly, can’t a politician just run for the Senate and still be considered experienced? On the other hand I don’t really see any harm in letting a politician stay in office longer. I frown on term limits. I think it’s just another tool to entrench a political party. If a politician stays in the same office for 30 years, it’s the fault of the voters in that district. Nothing is stopping them from voting for someone else. Instead with term limits you’re removing a reason for a legislative seat to change hands. No longer can an opponent say Representative John Q. Politician has been in office too long, and that it’s time for a change of perspective. His party will simply replace him at the end of the term limit with another pliant representative and the lazy electorate can keep that seat Democratic or Republican for decades. So in this case, just flip a coin and pick yes or no from that.
Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97: The Indian Casino Ones
These four are pretty much the same deal but applied to four different Indian tribes. These are referendums on an existing law the state negotiated. Voting yes approves the law.
The particulars vary by the four tribes but essentially this law would allow these tribes to operate thousands more slot machines. Certain construction on tribal land would be exempted from California environmental oversight and instead the environmental impact would be policed by the tribe. Additional revenues paid into the state’s General Fund would vary by tribe but would consist of a flat fee of tens of millions of dollars plus a percentage of revenue from the additional slot machines. Taken together the four tribes would pay $122.6 million in fees each year on top of a slice of their new slots revenue. The pro-side is estimating this deal will give California a total of $9 billion over 20 years. That averages out to $450 million a year.
My Opinion – No: I used to be in the yes-camp, but as I’ve thought harder about it, I had to switch sides. At maximum the state is getting 25% of the new slots revenue. Why should that be limited to the new slots? Why aren’t all casino profits on the table here? I wonder what the state would get if it simply copied Nevada’s gaming tax. In Nevada the gaming tax rate is 6.75%. That is a lot less than my original idea of having the tribes pay the same as the corporate tax rate of 35%. What I can’t find is info on how profitable these casinos are so I can’t estimate the result. What I do know is that $450 million a year isn’t so much when we’re short $14 billion this year.