Ukraine made a pretty obvious plea to the Western World. President Victor Yushchenko announced that since Russia has abandoned the 1992 agreement on integrating radar stations, Ukraine would offer European nations access to its radar and missile early warning system. But that’s not the obvious part. Yushchenko also said that Ukraine’s sovereignty could only be ensured through collective security agreements, and only that “could prevent any actions like those which occurred on 7-8 August at first in South Ossetia, and then in other regions of Georgia”.
International politics does not get more open than that. This is a clear and direct appeal to us in the West to give Ukraine some concrete security assistance. Russia is a coiled snake. Are we just going to watch Ukraine get bitten?
Bush needs to kick NATO into gear and get our European allies to accept Yushchenko’s offer. That’s only a start. Just last week Poland agreed to host interceptors for our missile shield. In exchange, we will move 96 Patriot missiles into Poland and guarantee military support to Poland in the event a third party attacks. This clause is structured to proceed faster than invoking the mutual defense protocols of NATO. That’s not so paranoid when Russia is threatening you with nuclear weapons. We need to make a similar guarantee to Ukraine. Talk of European solidarity with Ukraine isn’t going to do anything to dissuade Russia from destabilizing it. An American presence will.
Part of that presence is organizing a cooperative defense system for Russia’s Near Abroad. As I mentioned in my original post about the Georgian War, nations threatened by Russia have offered Georgia ad-hoc assistance. The US can bring them together into a permanent structure to coordinate their defenses. They can share information gathered on Russian troop movements, create a common defensive strategy to respond to a Russian attack, and pool their expertise in cyberwarfare. I imagine founding members would include Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova and the Baltic states. Armenia and Azerbaijan would likely join soon after its founding if the organization shows promise. The Central Asian states may become interested as well.
Our State Department will have to beef up fast. Those Caucasian nations have a mutual fear of Russia, but they also have a lot of internal political problems. Our diplomats will have to get involved in solving intractable disputes such as the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. A conflict like that will undermine unity against Russia. That’s not the only issue either. There are plenty of enclaves in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia who are looking for some degree of autonomy. Our diplomatic corps must work towards getting these issues settled otherwise this endeavor will collapse in internal fighting.
The other element to America’s presence is something I’ve been arguing for years. America’s European forces should be redeployed. The Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact are long dead, but our force distribution hasn’t changed to reflect that. Russia’s adventure in Georgia is just another reminder we need to change with the times. The US Seventh Army should be moved east from its headquarters in Germany. I want it sent to Ukraine to bolster that nation’s defenses and show we’re serious about defending their sovereignty. Don’t think it’s too risky to place these soldiers near the source of conflict. Our German bases were built right at the front line of the Cold War when that land was in West Germany. However, if wimpier opinions prevail, Poland, Romania, Hungary or Bulgaria would be better choices than leaving them in Germany. The old Warsaw Pact nations have become market democracies, but if we don’t move our forces eastward to counter a resurgent Russia, we risk their freedom.
Of course all these actions will enrage the Russians. That doesn’t mean they will go to war over any of them. Russia’s only assets are nuclear missiles and a pretty good air force. Its navy is rotten. Remember what happened to the Kursk? It’s starting a rebuilding process, but that’s years away from completion and even after spending billions of rubles, it still won’t match the US fleet. The Russian Army itself is in worse shape. Russia is in process of replacing 45% of its armaments by 2015. Shiny new rifles won’t make good soldiers though. It’s still a conscript army with epic corruption and hazing problems. It’s no match for NATO. Look at what the Russians have challenged. It was badly bloodied fighting Chechen separatists and defeated a Georgian army that had, at best, 20,000 soldiers.
Russia’s conventional military is not a threat. They are aware of their deficiencies and will only pick on weak nations. There’s no way Russia will challenge the combined militaries of Europe and America in order to put small border nations under their sway. Would Russia resort to nuclear blackmail? Frankly I think they have too much pride for that. Besides, that would not play well to nationalist domestic public opinion. Russia thinks of itself as a guarantor of civilization. Threatening to set off nuclear weapons is not what civilized nations do. Plus it would make the public question if Russia itself really was a powerful nation. After all, why use nuclear weapons when a powerful nation would have conventional means available?
You may be thinking, ‘Why should we alienate Russia for these nations?’ That question assumes we’re giving up Russian friendship to create an anti-Russia alliance. Sorry but we don’t have Russian friendship. Russia is only interested in having us obey their wishes. We’re supposed to stay out of the former Soviet Union while Russia reorganizes and puts its empire back together. We’re supposed to keep out of Eastern Europe because that’s Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. We’re supposed to let Serbia run amok in the Balkans because Russia has fantasies about being the great Slavic protector. I would love nothing more than to pull US forces out of Europe entirely and keep that money in the treasury. Unfortunately it would be far more costly for everyone if we choose to ignore Russia today.