amNY didn’t want to let New York Magazine have all the fun of predicting NYC’s future. They did jump ahead to 2030 though.テつ amNY wasn’tテつ as detailed as NY Mag’s 2016 piece but it did a better job of raising the bile to the edge of my throat. The piece is a mix of self-righteous hipsterism and Sex and the City airheadedness.
I guess what actually got me all worked up was the article’s attitude toward transportation. Pompous lectures against cars in NYC are not new, but this sameテつ article also dismissed the subway like it was yesterday’s news. If you’re opposed to cars, how can you look down your nose at the most successful mass transit system in America? I’m flabbergasted.
amNY first says cars will become so expensive to keep in 2030 that only the rich will have them. Yet there will still be gridlock in the city because there are so many cars. Does that mean NYC is set for a huge up-tick in the number of rich people living there? Sounds to me like something pretty goodテつ for the city.
Congestion pricing has been done in London and possibly a few other cities I’m not aware of, but amNY is proposing a different system. The city is going to keep tabs on the distance millions of cars travel and charge them accordingly. This can’t be a simple bill determined by your mileage because you get charged higher prices depending on what time and what roads you drive on. So the city will be watching everywhere you go. Sounds like scary big brother tactics coming to reality but sadly it’s not completely far fetched. There is a pilot program going on in Oregon where drivers are being billed according to their mileage and time they drive.テつ Even so this didn’t track what streets you drove on. It was a simple per-mile fee. Auto insurance companies are experimenting with something more invasive. There was another pilot program where drivers were given a discount if they let the insurer install a GPS tracking system and radio. This device recorded the location of the vehicle at all times. The person’s premium was adjusted based on how much they drive and also if they were habitual speeders.
I can’t blame insurance companies for wanting to be nosier even if I don’t like it, but it’s just wrong for government to charge different rates forテつ service. Why do you ask? After all, you don’t even own a car. Why should your taxes go to keeping the roads in good order? The answer is that everyone depends on the roads. You may not ever driveテつ and have no friends that drive but everything you use relies on the road network. Whether it’s from a supermarket, a farmer’s market or some hippy food collective, those goods used the roads to get to you. Besides, drivers already pay more than non-drivers. We the car-owners pay plenty by having to register our car with the local DMV. I think I paid $150 last year.
By the same token, I’ve felt for awhile that NYC should really take the subway back under its own control. Just like the roads are basic infrastructure we should all share the costs of, in New York City the subway is just as vital as the road network. Maybe you’re wealthy (or patient) enough to use cars everywhere you go, but your lifestyle depends on all the workers who rely on the subway to get around. Let’s take a big company with many wealthy workers like Lehman Brothers. Forget about the workers who can afford to have a car centered lifestyle (even though I bet a lot of them take the subway anyway). That company probably still has thousands of workers who don’t make enough to give up the trains. If the subway disappeared, Lehman Brothers couldn’t continue business.
But I’ve gotten off topic… amNY, after it’s anti-car prediction, goes on to dismiss the subway. It admits the Second Avenue line will be built, because it has no choice. Construction has already started. However that’s the only change they expect. Gene Russianoff, the head of the Straphangers Campaign says, “Most of us will be thankful if the subway system is still up and running 25 years from now.” What a smartmouth! What about the 7 train extension? What about the new Atlantic Avenue line? I’d hardly call two new subway lines and an extension nothing. Not to mention whatever plans will be proposed in the next ten to twenty years. Frankly, I’d expect more from the MTA if NIMBYism wasn’t de rigueur in every neighborhood.
Instead of the subway, amNY is predicting bicycles and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) will make inroads with commuters. Suggesting bicycles is wide-eyed naivety. New Yorkers won’t bike to work because they don’t want to kill themselves. Biking is a lovely hobby when you do it in open space. Riding through congested streets is only asking for death. Even in a bicycle-friendly fantasy world where cars are banned, most New Yorkers will shun the bike because they don’t want to arrive at work sweaty and smelly.
The MTA is considering several BRT projects in the outer boroughs. BRT will probably become a part of the transit mix in NYC even though I consider it the gayest MTA project. This sort of transit is only suitable for emptier spots of the city because it requires so much space. BRT creates a bus only lane on a city street. In some spots the bus only lane might just be marked with paint. In other areas, special medians might be built to separate the bus lane from regular traffic. This takes away a lot of the available roadway, so therefore it’s only suitable for areas that don’t get much traffic. If someone put a gun to my head and told me to pick spots of BRT, I’d put it along the north end of Queens – Ditmars Blvd to Astoria Blvd to Northern Blvd. Also along the extreme west side of Manhattan. BRT should act like a feeder to the subway. The north Queens BRT should dump people into the N train. The West Side BRT should dump people into that new 7 train extension.
The culture and living section of the article sounded downright ditzy. Anti-wrinkle cream will make intergenerational dating acceptable? I can believe it will turn a whole generation of the old into huge liars about their age, but I really don’t think it will change society. May-December relationships will still be oddities.
The article is assuming these relationships don’t happen because of looks. I disagree because May-December relationships are based on mutual exchange. Today the exchange typicallyテつ follows thatテつ the young one gives hot sex, while the old one gives money. If you remove the ugliness from most old people, what happens to the exchange? The old, who now look good again, don’t need to go to the young for hot sex.テつ Ifテつ the old aren’t as costly to maintain in a relationship as theテつ young, intergenerational dating might actually go on the decline.
In my mind, it’s a matter of culture. Similar age groups get along better because they have more in common. Today people reach out of their age group to get something else. The old date the young for their hot young bodies. When you remove that advantage, the young have nothing else to offer the old.
Here’s my prediction for 2030: More of the same. Things will change, and people will bitch about change. That is as universal as death and taxes.