I found another one of those future predictions articles from years past. I do really love these because they often have such a distorted view. We always make the mistake of thinking the stuff that’s important today will still be important later. This article comes from the November 1968 issue of Mechanix Illustrated.
You can read the article straight through if you follow that link above. You probably should since it’s more of a narrative than a list. Here, I’ll break these predictions down point by point.
“…sleek, two-passenger air-cushion car, press a sequence of buttons and the national traffic computer notes your destination, figures out the current traffic situation and signals your car to slide out of the garage. Hands free, you sit back and begin to read the morning paper—which is flashed on a flat TV screen over the car’s dashboard. Tapping a button changes the page.”
This is half ridiculous. I’m sure at the time it sounded crazy. 1968 was solidly inside the giant car era. Why have a roadster? Frankly I find the idea of an air-cushioned car weirder than the national traffic computer. If I understand “air-cushioned” right, this futurist is predicting hovercrafts would replace wheeled automobiles. A centrally controlled traffic computer is an idea that was expected to occur, probably up until the early 1990s. I think the Internet killed that futurist plan though. Before the Internet people didn’t imagine separate computers being networked would be of any great use. Decentralized computing is now the norm. Eventually we will have autonomous cars, but it won’t be because the government is running a giant computer that controls all of them.
“The car accelerates to 150 mph in the city’s suburbs, then hits 250 mph in less built-up areas, gliding over the smooth plastic road.”
I don’t really understand why, if all cars are controlled by computer, they need to drive slower in the suburbs. Maybe the traffic is denser but so what? The computer controls all the cars. Plastic roads are an interesting idea. I don’t know anything about hovercrafts though, so I guess riding on plastic would make them go faster? But they hover so why would the road surface matter? They shouldn’t be touching it.
“The traffic computer, which feeds and receives signals to and from all cars in transit between cities, keeps vehicles at least 50 yds. apart.”
Why keep them apart? The traffic computer should pack as many cars as possible on to the road. It would be more impressive if these cars were traveling 200 mph and were only inches apart. The problem here is that this futurist isn’t thinking this idea through to its end. They are making the mistake of applying the rules of human driving with the ”reality” of computer controlled driving.
“You whizz past a string of cities, many of them covered by the new domes that keep them evenly climatized year round.”
Domed cities on Earth. There are so many things wrong with that. Forget any kind of environmental concerns. I’m looking at this from an economic perspective. Cities will bear the expense of constructing domes over hundreds of square miles. Then they will pay to heat and cool these hundreds of square miles. You know these domes will have to be transparent because otherwise the population will complain about never seeing the sky. The air conditioning equipment would be enormous to cool down these gigantic greenhouses. Perhaps cities with cold winters would luck out and get free solar heating. However since the dome is enclosed, you need to constantly ventilate it. I assume internal combustion engines will be banned so the air shouldn’t be as particulate filled as today. I guess fans would have to be scattered throughout to keep the air circulating and huge filters would be needed to clean it. So each city will pay hundreds of billions just so it can stay 72-degrees all year round. Sure, that’s really worth it.
“Suddenly your TV phone buzzes…”
Again the obsession with video telephones. I’m not sure if this TV phone is attached to your car or not. If not, then we’re there. Cell phones can do video calls if both phones have the front-facing camera and a service provider that supports it.
“A business associate wants a sketch of a new kind of impeller your firm is putting out for sports boats. You reach for your attache case and draw the diagram with a pencil-thin infrared flashlight on what looks like a TV screen lining the back of the case. The diagram is relayed to a similar screen in your associate’s office, 200 mi. away. He jabs a button and a fixed copy of the sketch rolls out of the device.”
Done! Buy a Tablet PC and get a wireless network card from your cell phone company, and you can do this right now. Draw on your tablet, email your sketch to your business associate and he can print it out in his office.
“…you slide beneath the dome of your destination city. Your car decelerates and heads for an outer-core office building where you’ll meet your colleagues. After you get out, the vehicle parks itself in a convenient municipal garage to await your return. Private cars are banned inside most city cores. Moving sidewalks and electrams carry the public from one location to another.”
This isn’t an exciting prediction. If your car can drive itself, it can park itself. I brought this section up because I find amount of government control disturbing. The government controls the traffic computer, and by extension, controls where you go. The garage you park in is owned by the government. Are there no private garages in this world? You can’t even take your car into the city. You must rely on government controlled “moving sidewalks and electrams”.
“…U.S. population having soared to 350 million…”
Close. We’re at 303 million on May 2nd.
“Giant transportation hubs called modemixers are located anywhere from 15 to 50 mi. outside all major urban centers. Tube trains, pushed through bores by compressed air, make the trip between modemixer and central city in 10 to 15 minutes.”
Modemixer, what a stupid name. I’m sure the government owns the tube trains. No taxis in this future! Anyway, compressed air trains are not a new idea. Alfred Ely Beech tried to build a compressed air subway in New York City way back in 1870. It didn’t work then and it wouldn’t work now. Sure it’s fine for a short distance. I bet that block long Beech subway was very comfortable, but you can’t scale that up to a 15 mile trip without busting your budget.
“A major feature of most modemixers is the launching pad from which 200-passenger rockets blast off for other continents. For less well-heeled travelers there are SST and hypersonic planes that carry 200 to 300 passengers at speeds up to 4,000 mph. Short trips— between cities less than 1,000 mi. apart—are handled by slower jumbo jets.”
This is an interesting breakdown of future air travel. Intercontinental flights will be done by rockets. The poor people will have to settle for hypersonic planes. I can’t imagine why this guy thought this up. Being blasted into the upper atmosphere by rocket is not comfortable. Rich people aren’t going to pay to experience multiple g-forces, when a hypersonic plane is perfectly comfortable. I don’t care how fast a rocket goes.
“Dwellings for the most part are assembled from prefabricated modules…”
Pfft, no. I think people are still predicting assembly line homes for the future.
“Homes in Mi’s 80th year are practically self-maintaining. Electrostatic precipitators clean the air and climatizers maintain the temperature and humidity at optimum levels. Robots are available to do housework and other simple chores. New materials for siding and interiors are self-cleaning and never peel, chip or crack.”
Is an electrostatic precipitator the same thing as an Ionic Breeze fan from Sharper Image? We have roombas for vacuuming and scoobas for mopping. Okay robots can’t do every household chore but we’re getting there. I have read about self-cleaning building materials but it has always been in the context of skyscraper construction. I never heard of anything like that for a residence.
“The housewife simply determines in advance her menus for the week, then slips prepackaged meals into the freezer and lets the automatic food utility do the rest. At preset times, each meal slides into the microwave oven and is cooked or thawed. The meal then is served on disposable plastic plates. These plates, as well as knives, forks and spoons of the same material, are so inexpensive they can be discarded after use.”
Ah, blinded by 1960s culture. If housewives are freed from housework by these computers, why didn’t anyone ever figure women would get bored at home and want to get their own careers going? By the way, why do the meals get cooked at preset times? What if I have to stay late at work? The computer is going to cook my dinner and let it get cold? Oh and were disposable plates and utensils expensive in 1968? I thought they had this stuff back then. Why would this futurist assume everyone would switch to disposable stuff because it’s “so inexpensive they can be discarded after one use”?
“The single most important item in 2008 households is the computer. These electronic brains govern everything from meal preparation and waking up the household to assembling shopping lists and keeping track of the bank balance.”
Don’t you love that phrase “electronic brains”? We can see more of the obsession with centralization this guy had. Your single household computer would govern everything that goes on in the house. What a relief there’s no government controlled household computer that tells everyone when to eat and when to wake up.
“Not every family has its private computer. Many families reserve time on a city or regional computer to serve their needs. The machine tallies up its own services and submits a bill, just as it does with other utilities.”
Ha! So society can afford to convert cities into arcologies but computers will still be too expensive for everyone to buy. I’m sure they will be so small, they will only fill up one football field.
“Money has all but disappeared. Employers deposit salary checks directly into their employees’ accounts. Credit cards are used for paying all bills. Each time you buy something, the card’s number is fed into the store’s computer station. A master computer then deducts the charge from your bank balance.”
This guy can’t even get terminology right. He mentions credit cards, but then goes on to describe a debit card system. It’s not credit if the charge gets deducted from your bank account! By the way, who knew direct deposit was a sign of the bright, modern future. It always seemed too mundane and obvious to me.
“TV-telephone shopping is common. To shop, you simply press the numbered code of a giant shopping center…Much of the family shopping is done this way. Instead of being jostled by crowds, shoppers electronically browse through the merchandise of any number of stores.”
Well we have had the Home Shopping Network for quite some time but I don’t think this guy meant that. I think he would be disappointed by the human operators and your inability to choose what products you want to see. I think similar systems were tried in the 80s but the Internet has replaced all that. The vague idea of shopping at home is there, but the implementation is all wrong.
“The average work day is about four hours.”
No! Why is it futurists always seem to think that productivity means completing the same amount of work in less time? Didn’t anyone ever think we would do more work in the same amount of time?
“The pace of technological advance is such that a certain amount of a jobholder’s spare time is used in keeping up with the new developments—on the average, about two hours of home study a day.”
Well this is only marginally correct. I’m not really sure what this guy expects future people to be studying. “Technological advance” is an awfully vague phrase. In a broader sense I think this guy was arguing that people studying to advance their careers would be more common. I don’t know if that’s true. I hope so. I’d like to think people today want to improve their skill set. I don’t know if more people do that than in 1968.
“Most of this study is in the form of programmed TV courses, which can be rented or borrowed from tape libraries. In fact most schooling—from first grade through college—consists of programmed TV courses or lectures via closed circuit.”
I heard of this idea many times and real effort went into trying to make it work. It never caught on though and now distance learning is all done through the Internet.
“TV screens cover an entire wall in most homes…”
If only! Well a 42″ plasma screen would be astonishing to someone from 1968.
“…and show most subjects other than straight text matter in color and three dimensions.”
Not quite. Maybe they wouldn’t be as impressed as I thought.
“In addition to programmed TV and the multiplicity of commercial fare, you can see top Broadway shows, hit movies and current nightclub acts for a nominal charge.”
There’s On Demand service and pay-per-view. This is solved.
“A typical vacation in 2008 is to spend a week at an undersea resort, where your hotel room window looks out on a tropical underwater reef, a sunken ship or an ancient, excavated city. Available to guests are two- and three-person submarines in which you can cruise well-marked underwater trails. Another vacation is a stay on a hotel satellite. The rocket ride to the satellite and back, plus the vistas of earth and moon, make a memorable vacation jaunt.”
This feels like a very tired, common prediction from the mid-20th century. I have to question if people really believed this. I suspect people just parroted this back in any discussion of the future because it was so oft repeated.
“Farmers are business executives running operations as automated as factories. TV scanners monitor tractors and other equipment computer programmed to plow, harrow and harvest. Wires imbedded in the ground send control signals to the machines. Computers also keep track of yields-, fertilization, soil composition and other factors influencing crops. At the beginning of each year, a print-out tells the farmer what to plant where, how much to fertilize and how much yield he can expect.”
This is mostly true. Farmers are less and less the dirty rube of yesteryear. I don’t know what a TV scanner is, but GPS systems control tractors. Farm equipment is getting bigger and more automated. Satellite imagery is used to plan for planting and harvest. No wires are embedded in the soil though.
“Mariculturists have turned areas of the sea into beds of protein-rich seaweed and algae. This raw material is processed into food that looks and tastes like steak and other meats.”
Soylent Green is made out of people!
“Heart disease has virtually been eliminated by drugs and diet.”
I laughed out loud when I read this. The next time you see one of those futurist shows on Discovery or TLC, and they make some crazy prediction about cancer being wiped out and people living to 150, remember this prediction.
All in all, a pretty enjoyable list. I’m glad not to live in this future though. It’s a little too automated for my taste. I’d love a car that drove itself but I’d like to choose where it goes. I don’t want a domed city either. It feels like such a bland, sterile life. This future takes away a lot of interaction. I don’t just mean between humans either but you do lose a lot of that as well. Your car drives itself. Your house cleans itself. The kitchen cooks your meals for you. The convenience is great, but I think I’d be losing out on making decisions for myself. I would be stuck following all these programmed schedules.